Sep 27 2008

The threats our new President will face for us

Category: arab,China,economy,energy,Hamas,Hizbullah,Iran,Iraq,Islam,middle east,military,oil prices,Russia — harmonicminer @ 8:48 am

Thnk the ability to debate is seriously important?  Think it matters more than good judgment, clear understanding of the world, and commitment to the welfare of America above party?

The threats, and some unfortunate connections, are made clear here.  These are serious people, with seriously bad intentions, who aren’t impressed by debate tactics, smooth talk or stage presence.  They will not be “negotiated with” in the normal sense of the term, because we have nothing they want that they aren’t going to get from us anyway.  We cannot give them enough to remove their bad intentions, and they have the capabilities, by and large, to act on those intentions, if we give them time and opportunity.  All of them have proved that.

Who is the very serious person you want as President of the USA to deal with these people?  Who, among the candidates we have, has sufficient wisdom, experience, clarity and toughness to represent us, and make decisions critical to our security?  Who has proved that he will put us first, regardless of his own self-interest, regardless of political fallout?   Who, among the candidates we have, will these people take seriously?   I think you know.

The old standbys, also hip deep in bad plans for the USA, and freedom around the world.

And then, there are our “friends”.

Whose vested interest is keeping us waiting in line for their largess.

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Sep 25 2008

Russia has big military plans

Category: military,Russia — harmonicminer @ 9:08 am

Russian defense spending will increase by 25% for 2009, according to Pravda.

Russian lawmakers gave preliminary approval Friday to a 2009 budget that calls for a 25 percent hike in defense spending – a sharp increase for Russia’s military that comes only a month after it crushed Georgia on the battlefield.

The boost in defense spending fits in with Russia’s recent defiant posture toward the West, a stance that has seen relations with the United States and the European Union sink to a post-Cold War low after last month’s war in Georgia.

Presumably this doesn’t count the incredible amount of export profit Russia is making from supplying arms to the world, especially to adversaries of the USA, like Iran, Venezuela, etc.

One can only wonder exactly what threats or responsibilities Russia must face that require such expenditure. Must be all those former USSR territories that Russia still plans to invade. Or maybe Russia is just afraid that Lithuania will invade it.

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Sep 19 2008

What Egypt stands to gain

Category: arab,Hamas,Hizbullah,Iran,Islam,Israel,middle east,Russia,terrorism — harmonicminer @ 9:21 am

From Haaretz, Egypt draws up plan to end internal Palestinian crisis

Egypt has drawn up a plan to end the internal Palestinian crisis and
will propose it to rival Palestinian factions, Fatah and Hamas, as soon as the sides agree to hear it sources said Saturday.

Egypt has come up with the plan after several rounds of bilateral talks with representatives from the different Palestinian factions. Later this month, Egyptian officials will meet with leaders from Hamas and Fatah separately to propose the plan and get their acceptance.

The Palestinian crisis escalated in June 2007 when Hamas routed security forces loyal to President Mahmoud Abbas, ousted his Fatah movement and took over control of the Gaza Strip, effectively separating it from the West Bank where Abbas has consolidated his rule.

Egypt’s problem:

Its government needs to appear to be working in good faith to resolve difficult aspects of the Palestinian situation. It cannot be seen as being in conflict with the Palestinians, which makes situations like this a major problem.

On 22 January 2008, after Israel imposed a total closure on all exits and entrances to the Gaza Strip, a group of Hamas demonstrators, many of whom were women, attempted to force open the door of the Rafah crossing from Gaza into Egypt. They were beaten back by Egyptian police and gunfire erupted. That same night, Hamas militants set off 15 explosive charges demolishing a 200-metre length of the metal border wall that had been erected by Israel in 2004. After the resulting Breach of the Gaza-Egypt border, many thousands of Palestinians, with estimates ranging from 60,000 to 350,000 flowed into Egypt to buy goods. Palestinians were seen purchasing food, fuel, cigarettes, shoes, furniture, car parts, generators, and even weapons.

Egypt has prospered from its peace agreement with Israel, in terms of trade, tourism, and the regard of the world. Palestinian conflicts destabilize that agreement.  Egypt’s people, of course, are mainly sympathetic with the Palestinians.  That makes it tough to take strong enforcement action against Palestinians trying to breach the Gaza/Egypt border.  If Palestine can be somewhat stabilized, the chances of that kind of conflict are reduced.  Egypt’s battle with its own homegrown terrorists, the Muslim Brotherhood (the seedbed for Al Qaeda and others), makes it especially necessary for the government not to be seen as being in conflict with the Islamic side of any dispute.

Unlike some decades ago, the governments of Jordan and Egypt are both willing to be part of a two-state solution, if they don’t have to offend their own people’s sympathies to get it.  They understand, correctly, that it is to their financial and political benefit to do so.

It’s tempting to paint all Islamic mid-east nations with the same brush.  But the fact is that there would be considerable hope for peace if Syria and Iran dropped their support of Hamas and Hizbullah, and the Palestinians could see their way clear to elect a leadership that was not dedicated to maintaining the conflict.

Put simply, Iran’s and Syria’s leadership depend on maintaining that conflict for their own power.  And Russia is helping them do it, and helping the governments of Iran and Syria stay in power. The odds of Iran/Syria/Russia abandoning Hizbullah and Hamas are miniscule. But if there was some way to do an end-run around Hamas in Palestine, in terms of forming a government, it would be a start.  I have no illusions about Hamas peacefully allowing this to happen.  But, just possibly, if Hamas is seen by the Palestinians as being against a greater Palestine government, and if Hamas starts being known more for attacking other Palestinians than Israelis, something like the Anbar awakening could occur, where the locals once sympathetic to terrorists realize the danger they pose.

Egypt, hardly an ideal of freedom, is nevertheless doing the right thing here, and should be supported by the west in whatever ways will help.  In the meantime, the west has to find a way to get aid into Palestine that does not flow through Hamas first, so that the west does not support the Palestinian image of Hamas as caregiver.  I don’t have a suggestion about HOW to do this, and I recognize the difficulty of it.   Nevertheless, we have to find a way to get aid to Palestinians that does not simply prop up Hamas.  Just possibly, the beginning could be Egypt’s intervention to help develop a non-Hamas AND non-Fatah Palestinian unified government, through which aid from the west could be funneled that would help stabilize that new government.

The two state solution cannot work if one of them is simply a terrorist nation.  But if, by some working of God and diplomacy, a non-terrorist Palestinian government could form, there would be hope.  It’s worth the effort.

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Aug 22 2008

Israel tries appeasing Russia, too: fruitlessly, of course

Category: appeasement,Europe,freedom,liberty,politics,Russia — harmonicminer @ 8:53 am

Israel didn’t stick to its principles in its response to Russia’s invasion of Georgia, hoping to salvage some bit of self-interest, but to no avail.

You have to give Kadima <the ruling party that is almost certain to lose the next election> credit for loyalty: As the Bush administration was destroying any remaining credibility, and undermining its country’s interests, by abandoning a loyal and strategically important ally to Russia’s tender mercies, Israel’s ruling party decided it could not allow its American friends to shoulder the disgrace alone; it, too, should betray Georgia at the expense of its country’s interests. So the minute Russia invaded – just when Georgia needed arms most – Israel, which had hitherto been a prominent Georgian supplier, halted all arms shipments.

One might legitimately ask how this undermined the national interest. After all, Israel desperately needs Russian help on several crucial issues, ranging from Iran’s nuclear program to Hizbullah’s rearmament, and Israel needs Georgian help not at all. Moreover, Russia has made its unhappiness with arms sales to Georgia clear. Thus Kadima seemingly made the correct realpolitik choice.

The problem is that, according to government officials themselves, not only did the country receive no quid pro quo for halting the shipments, but Russia has repeatedly and explicitly declared that it will continue its anti-Israel policies regardless of whether or not Jerusalem sells arms to Georgia. Thus Israel gained nothing by betraying Georgia, while undermining two secondary but still significant interests.

Read it all, and hope that future US policy doesn’t reflect the same mistakes. The motto of the US Marines, “No better friend, no worse enemy”, ought to be true for any democracy supporting another democracy. There cannot be a good end for Russia to believe they can invade neighbors without serious repercussions.

The question is not, “What kind of risks are we willing to accept to defend Georgia’s sovereignty?” The question is, “What are we willing to do to stop Russia from retaking former territory of the Soviet Union, and getting a stranglehold on crucial oil pipelines? What are we willing to do to make sure Russia does not believe another Cold War is to its advantage?”

If we do nothing, or take only symbolic action with no real effect on Russia, this will not stop with Georgia.

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